Selected Publications

4 New FIORD 1.0 Papers Accepted

Discover the Causal Roadmap, your guide to navigating the world of real-world evidence (RWE). In this paper, we introduce an explicit, itemized framework 
that empowers researchers to pre-specify study designs and analysis plans. By enhancing transparency and objective comparisons of choices, the Causal Roadmap helps generate
 high-quality RWE and facilitates effective communication with regulatory agencies.

Paper 2: "Applying the Causal Roadmap in Safety Monitoring: Two Case Studies"
Explore real-world safety monitoring with the Causal Roadmap. This paper demonstrates how this structured framework can enhance transparency and 
objectivity in two case studies. Sponsored by the Sentinel Initiative, these examples showcase how the Causal Roadmap improves safety surveillance
and decision-making using electronic health records.

2 other papers in the process of being peer reviewed. 

Causes and Consequences of Child Growth Faltering in Low-resource settings

First-authored by CTML's Andrew Mertens and published Wednesday, September 13 in the journal Nature, the study is the largest, most comprehensive look yet at the causes and consequences of growth faltering within the first two years of life.

Titlesort ascending Author Year Publication type
Who is most at risk of dying if infected with SARS-CoV-2? A mortality risk factor analysis using machine learning of patients with COVID-19 over time: a large population-based cohort study in Mexico Lauren D Liao, Alan E Hubbard, Juan Pablo Gutierrez, Arturo Juárez-Flores, Kendall Kikkawa, Ronit Gupta, Yana Yarmolich, Iván de Jesús Ascencio-Montiel, Stefano M Bertozzi 2023 Journal Article
Unified methods for Censored Longitudinal Data and Causality M.J. van der Laan; J.M. Robins 2003 Book
To GEE or not to GEE: comparing population average and mixed models for estimating the associations between neighborhood risk factors and health Hubbard, A. E.; Ahern, J.; Fleischer, N. L.; Laan, M. V.; Lippman, S. A.; Jewell, N.; Bruckner, T.; Satariano, W. A. 2010 Journal Article
Time-dependent prediction and evaluation of variable importance using superlearning in high-dimensional clinical data Hubbard, Alan; Munoz, Ivan Diaz; Decker, Anna; Holcomb, John B.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Brasel, Karen J.; Fox, Erin E.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Wade, Charles E.; others 2013 Journal Article
The optimal dynamic treatment rule superlearner: considerations, performance, and application to criminal justice interventions Montoya LM, van der Laan MJ, Luedtke AR, Skeem JL, Coyle JR, Petersen ML. 2022 Journal Article
The Cross-validated Adaptive Epsilon-Net Estimator Mark J. van der Laan; Sandrine Dudoit; Aad W. van der Vaart 2009 Journal Article
Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimation of Causal Effects in Right-Censored Survival Data with Time Dependent Covariates: Warfarin, Stroke, and Death in Atrial Fibrillation J. Brooks; M. J. van der Laan; D.E. Singer; A. S. Go 2013 Journal Article
Targeted Minimum Loss Based Estimation of Marginal Structural Working Models M. Petersen; J. Schwab; S. Gruber; N. Blaser; M. Schomaker; M.J. van der Laan 2013 Journal Article
Targeted Maximum Likelihood Learning Mark van der Laan; Dan Rubin 2006 Journal Article
Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Dynamic and Static Longitudinal Marginal Structural Working Models Petersen M, Schwab J, Gruber S, Blaser N, Schomaker M, van der Laan M. 2014 Journal Article
Targeted Maximum Likelihood Based Causal Inference Part II M.J. van der Laan 2010 Journal Article
Targeted Maximum Likelihood Based Causal Inference Part I M.J. van der Laan 2010 Journal Article
Targeted Learning: Causal Inference for Observational and Experimental Data Sherri Rose; Mark van der Laan 2011 Book
Targeted Learning, Causal Inference for Observational and Experimental Data M.J. van der Laan; S. Rose 2011 Book
Targeted learning of the mean outcome under an optimal dynamic treatment rule M. J. van der Laan; A. R. Luedtke 2014 Journal Article
Targeted Learning in real-world comparative effectiveness research with time-varying interventions R. Neugebauer; J. Schmittdiel; M.J. van der Laan 2014 Journal Article
Targeted Learning in Data Science: Causal Inference for Complex Longitudinal Sherri Rose; Mark van der Laan 2018 Book
Targeted Learning in Data Science - Causal Inference for Complex Longitudinal Studies M.J. van der Laan; S. Rose 2018 Book
Targeted Learning Handbook: Causal Machine Learning and Inference in the tlverse R Software Ecosystem Jeremy Coyle, Mark van der Laan, Alan Hubbard, Rachael Phillips, Ivana Malenica, Nima Hejazi 2022 Book
Targeted estimation and inference for the sample average treatment effect in trials with and without pair matching †Balzer, L; Petersen, M; van der Laan, M; the SEARCH Collaboration 2016 Journal Article
SuperNOVA: Semi-Parametric Identification and Estimation of Interaction and Effect Modification in Mixed Exposures using Stochastic Interventions in R David McCoy, Ph.D.; Alejandro Schuler, Ph.D.; Alan Hubbard, Ph.D.; Mark van der Laan, Ph.D. 2023 Journal Article
Super learner analysis of real-time electronically monitored adherence to antiretroviral therapy under constrained optimization and comparison to non-differentiated care approaches for persons living with HIV in rural Uganda †Benitez AE, Musinguzi N, Bangsberg DR, Bwana MB, Muzoora C, Hunt PW, Martin JN, Haberer JE, Petersen ML 2020 Journal Article
Statistical inference for the mean outcome under a possibly non-unique optimal treatment strategy A. R. Luedtke; M. J. van der Laan 2019 Journal Article
Statistical Inference for Data Adaptive Target Parameters Hubbard, A.; Kherad-Pajouh, S.; van der Laan, M. 2016 Journal Article
Resampling Based Multiple Testing with Applications to Genomics S. Dudoit; M.J. van der Laan 2009 Book
Quantile-function based null distribution in resampling based multiple testing van der Laan, Mark J.; Hubbard, Alan E. 2006 Journal Article
Population intervention models in causal inference Hubbard, Alan E.; van der Laan, Mark J. 2008 Journal Article
Petersen M. Constrained binary classification using ensemble learning: an application to cost-efficient targeted PrEP strategies †Zheng W; §Balzer L; van der Laan M 2017 Journal Article
Oracle Inequalities for Multi-Fold Cross-Validation Aad W. van der Vaart; S. Dudoit; M.J. van der Laan 2006 Journal Article
Optimal Individualized Treatments in Resource-Limited Settings A. Luedtke; M. van der Laan 2018 Journal Article
Mining with Inference: Data Adaptive Target Parameters Hubbard, Alan E.; van der Laan, Mark J. 2019 Journal Article
Mass extinctions as statistical phenomena: an examination of the evidence using chi-square tests and bootstrapping Hubbard, Alan E.; Gilinsky, Norman L. 1992 Journal Article
Machine learning to identify persons at high-risk of HIV acquisition in rural Kenya and Uganda Balzer LB, Havlir DV, Kamya MR, Chamie G, Charlebois ED, Clark TD, Koss CA, Kwarisiima D, Ayieko J, Sang N, Kabami J, Atukunda M, Jain V, Camlin CS, Cohen CR, Bukusi EA, van der Laan M, Petersen ML. 2020 Journal Article
Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Time-varying Mediators and Exposures, with Application to Survival Outcomes W. Zheng; M. van der Laan 2017 Journal Article
Improved Small-Sample Estimation of Nonlinear Cross-Validated Prediction Metrics Benkeser D, Petersen M & van der Laan MJ 2019 Journal Article
HIV Testing and Treatment with the Use of a Community Health Approach in Rural Africa Havlir DV, Balzer LB, Charlebois ED, Clark TD, Kwarisiima D, Ayieko J, Kabami J, Sang N, Liegler T, Chamie G, Camlin CS, Jain V, Kadede K, Atukunda M, Ruel T, Shade SB, Ssemmondo E, Byonanebye DM, Mwangwa F, Owaraganise A, Olilo W, Black D, Snyman K,; Burger R, Getahun M, Achando J, Awuonda B, Nakato H, Kironde J, Okiror S, Thirumurthy H, Koss C, Brown L, Marquez C, Schwab J, Lavoy G, Plenty A, Mugoma Wafula E, Omanya P, Chen YH, Rooney JF, Bacon M, van der Laan M, Cohen CR, Bukusi E, Kamya MR,; Petersen M. 2019 Journal Article
Evaluating the Impact of a HIV Low-Risk Express Care Task-Shifting Program: A Case Study of the Targeted Learning Roadmap. †Tran L; Yiannoutsos CT; Musick BS; Wools-Kaloustian K; Siika A; Kimaiyo S; van der Laan M; Petersen M 2016 Journal Article
Estimators for the value of the optimal dynamic treatment rule with application to criminal justice interventions Montoya LM, van der Laan MJ, Skeem JL, Petersen ML. 2022 Journal Article
Estimation of direct causal effects Petersen ML, Sinisi SE, van der Laan MJ 2019 Journal Article
Entering the era of data science: Targeted Learning and the Integration of Statistics and Computational Data Analysis M.J. van der Laan; R.J.C.M. Starmans 2014 Journal Article
Empirical Efficiency Maximization: Improved Locally Efficient Covariate Adjustment in Randomized Experiments and Survival Analysis D. Rubin; M.J. van der Laan 2008 Journal Article
Effect of breastfeeding on gastrointestinal infection in infants: A targeted maximum likelihood approach for clustered longitudinal data M. E. Schnitzer; M. J. van der Laan; E. E. Moodie; R. W. Platt 2014 Journal Article
Dynamic Impact of Transfusion Ratios on Outcomes in Severely Injured Patients: Targeted Machine Learning Analysis of the Pragmatic, Randomized Optimal Platelet and Plasma Ratios Randomized Clinical Trial Nguyen, M.; Pirracchio, R.; Kornblith, L. Z.; Callcut, R.; Fox, E. E; Wade, C. E.; Schreiber, M.; Holcomb, J. B.; Coyle, J.; Cohen, M.; Hubbard, A. E. 2020 Journal Article
Doubly robust nonparametric inference on the average treatment effect D. Benkeser; P. Gilbert; M.J. van der Laan; M. Carone 2017 Journal Article
Double Robust Efficient Estimators of Longitudinal Treatment Effects: Comparative Performance in Simulations and a Case Study Tran L, Yiannoutsos C, Wools-Kaloustian K, Siika A, van der Laan M, Petersen M. 2019 Journal Article
Direct effects and effect among the treated Hubbard AE; Jewell NP; van der Laan MJ 2011 Journal Article
Diagnosing and responding to violations in the positivity assumption Petersen ML, Porter KE, Gruber S, Wang Y, van der Laan MJ. 2012 Journal Article
Depressive symptoms in low-income women in rural Mexico Fleischer, Nancy L.; Fernald, Lia C.; Hubbard, Alan E. 2007 Journal Article
Countering the Curse of Dimensionality: Exploring Data-generating Mechanisms Through Participant Observation and Mechanistic Modeling; Epidemiology Hubbard, Alan; Trostle, James; Trostle, James; Cangemi, Ivan; Eisenberg, Joseph N. S 2020 Journal Article
Causes and Consequences of Child Growth Faltering in Low-resource settings Andrew Mertens, Jade Benjamin-Chung, John M. Colford Jr, Jeremy Coyle, Mark J. van der Laan, Alan E. Hubbard, Sonali Rosete, Ivana Malenica, Nima Hejazi, Oleg Sofrygin, Wilson Cai, Haodong Li, etc. 2023 Journal Article
Causal Models and Learning from Data: Integrating Causal Modeling and Statistical Estimation in the Practice of Epidemiology Maya Petersen; Mark van der Laan 2015 Journal Article
Causal models and learning from data: integrating causal modeling and statistical estimation Petersen ML, van der Laan MJ 2014 Journal Article
Causal inference when counterfactuals depend on the proportion of all subjects exposed §Miles CH,; Petersen M,; van der Laan MJ 2019 Journal Article
Causal Inference for a Population of Causally Connected Units M. J. van der Laan 2014 Journal Article
Causal effect models for realistic individualized treatment and intention to treat rules van der Laan MJ, Petersen ML. 2009 Journal Article
Causal Effect Models for Realistic Individualized Treatment and Intention to Treat Rules M.J. van der Laan; Maya L. Petersen 2007 Journal Article
Big Data, Small Sample: Edgeworth Expansions Provide a Cautionary Tale Gerlovina, Inna; van der Laan, Mark J; Hubbard, Alan 2017 Journal Article
Big data and targeted machine learning in action to assist medical decision in the ICU; Anesthesia Critical Care \& Pain Medicine Pirracchio, Romain; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Malenica, Ivana; Cohen, Jonathan; Chambaz, Antoine; Cannesson, Maxime; Lee, Christine; Resche-Rigon, Matthieu; Hubbard, Alan E. 2019 Journal Article
Association of implementation of a universal testing and treatment intervention with HIV diagnosis, receipt of antiretroviral therapy, and HIV viral suppression among adults in East Africa Petersen M,; Balzer L,; Kwarsiima D,; Sang N5,; Chamie G2,; Ayieko J,; Kabami J,; Owaraganise A,; Liegler T,; Mwangwa F,; Kadede K,; Jain, V,; Plenty A,; Brown L,; Lavoy G,; Schwab J,; Black D,; van der Laan M,; Bukusi E,; Cohen C,; Clark T,; Charlebois E,; Kamya M,; Havlir D 2017 Journal Article
Application of machine learning methodology to assess the performance of DIABETIMSS program for patients with type 2 diabetes in family medicine clinics in Mexico Yue You; Svetlana V. Doubova; Diana Pinto-Masis; Ricardo Pérez-Cuevas; Víctor Hugo Borja-Aburto; Alan Hubbard 2019 Journal Article
An Application of the Causal Roadmap in Two Safety Monitoring Case Studies: Causal Inference and Outcome Prediction using Electronic Health Record Data Brian D Williamson,Richard Wyss, Elizabeth A Stuart, Lauren E Dang, Andrew N Mertens, Romain S Neugebauer, Andrew Wilson, Susan Gruber 2023 Journal Article
Adaptive pre-specification in randomized trials with and without pair-matching: SEARCH Collaboration L.B. Balzer; M.L. Petersen; M.J. van der Laan 2016 Journal Article
Adaptive pre-specification in randomized trials with and without pair-matching Balzer, LB; van der Laan, MJ; Petersen, ML; SEARCH Collaboration 2016 Journal Article
A roadmap for estimating and interpreting population intervention parameters Ahern J, Hubbard A. 2009 Journal Article
A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure †Balzer L,; Zheng W,; van der Laan M,; Petersen M 2018 Journal Article
A General Implementation of TMLE for Longitudinal Data Applied to Causal Inference in Survival Analysis Ori M. Stitelman; Victor De Gruttola; Mark J. van der Laan 2012 Journal Article
A Doubly Robust Censoring Unbiased Transformation Dan Rubin; Mark van der Laan 2007 Journal Article
A Causal Roadmap for Generating High-Quality Real-World Evidence Lauren E Dang , Susan Gruber , Hana Lee , Issa J Dahabreh , Elizabeth A Stuart , Brian D Williamson , Richard Wyss , Iván Dí 2023 Journal Article